19 days till the election.
After all the data gathering, poll gazing and puzzling over interviews we still don’t know what will happen November 6th. It’s a good story. You can guess the end but you won’t know till you get there!
The current narrative thread is that the Democrats will take the House and the Republicans will keep the Senate. That’s what polls indicate, but as we know polls don’t tell the whole story.
One conclusion might be, don’t expect this story to make sense…
Ø Although people said they will vote along party lines, most people we interviewed said that their party does not represent them very well…which may be one reason why almost half the population says they are Independent.
Ø The races in many states between very different candidates are very tight…that’s interesting. That reflects the polarization we all feel along party lines. But it may not reflect the political reality of today’s voters.
“This is not a 50-50 nation.” (see https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/15/opinion/politics-race-white-tribalism.html) There are a lot of people in the middle. I heard it again and again - voters who are fiscally conservative and socially liberal. Yes, from young people.
Ø The Pew research shows that many voters on each side view each other as a threat to their well-being and way of life. That’s pretty dire.
Ø Many R’s and D’s worry about the divide - but as divided as we are, there is a majority consensus on major issues such as climate change, health care and gun control. So we may not be as divided as we think. Why we can’t act on that is a different story.